Macroeconomic Forecast - November 2026
Summary of the Forecast
English version of the November Macroeconomic Forecast will be released in the week of 9 November.
The Czech economy is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2026 and by 2.5% in 2027. In both years, growth will be driven exclusively by domestic demand, particularly household consumption and investment. However, this year’s growth is being significantly dampened by a drawdown in inventories and a negative contribution from foreign trade, whilst the impact of changes in inventories is expected to reverse next year. The average inflation rate is expected to reach 2.1% this year and rise to 3.1% in 2027, mainly as a result of higher energy prices for households and a resumption of food price inflation.
The external environment continues to be weighed down by the conflict in the Middle East. Disruptions to the production, transport and processing of energy commodities are increasing production and transport costs, weakening household purchasing power and deepening uncertainty in firms’ investment decisions. The baseline forecast assumes a gradual de-escalation of the conflict and the resumption of oil and natural gas supplies. However, persistent security risks and damage to infrastructure will slow down this process. Energy commodity prices are expected to fall gradually, but will remain sensitive to further developments in the conflict.
Real gross domestic product, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, rose by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and by 1.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, according to a flash estimate. Economic growth will be supported by a continued rise in real household incomes, which will enable further growth in household consumption. Fixed investment will also be a significant driver of growth this year, although its growth is set to slow next year. The acceleration in GDP will therefore stem primarily from a slowdown in the drawdown of inventories. Exports should benefit from a recovery in foreign demand and the gradual easing of constraints in supply chains. At the same time, however, the continued growth in domestic demand will support imports.
The inflation rate this year is being dampened mainly by the transfer of funding for subsidised energy sources to the state budget, a stronger koruna and favourable food price trends. The restrictive monetary policy stance also continues to have an anti-inflationary effect. Rising fuel prices, brisk wage growth and increasing housing costs are having the opposite effect. For next year, we expect consumer prices for electricity and gas to rise, following on from previous price increases in the wholesale markets. Price pressures will also be sustained by growth in earnings and imputed rent. Their impact should be partly offset by the expected fall in oil prices.
Tensions persist in the labour market due to labour shortages, which are fuelling wage and salary growth. Employment continues to rise, driven by the services and construction sectors, whilst the manufacturing sector is dampening overall growth slightly. The unemployment rate is expected to average 3.0% this year and to fall to 2.8% in 2027 as the economy continues to grow. Real earnings are expected to rise both this year and next.
The current account balance is expected to slip into a deficit of 0.2% of GDP this year, which will widen to 0.5% of GDP in 2027. This year’s deterioration will primarily reflect a decline in the surplus on the goods and services account. This will be driven by stronger domestic demand, higher prices for imported energy commodities and constraints on the export side. Next year, exports are expected to be supported by more favourable economic developments among trading partners. However, the goods surplus will narrow further due to higher imports, which will only partially offset improvements in the primary income balance and the services balance.
The general government sector’s budget is expected to end 2026 with a higher year-on-year deficit of 2.8% of GDP, driven primarily by slower revenue growth. This is due to a shortfall in revenue caused by the expiry of the windfall tax, the waiver of the levy on subsidised energy sources for households and businesses, and, last but not least, repeated reductions in the excise duty on diesel. For 2027, we expect the overall deficit to rise to 3.5% of GDP. Public debt is projected to reach 45.8% of GDP this year and to rise further to 47.4% of GDP in 2027.
Overall, we consider the risks to this forecast to be skewed towards lower economic growth and higher inflation. The most significant risk is a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the associated disruption to supplies and pressure on energy prices, exacerbated by the relatively low levels of gas in European storage facilities. Other significant risks relate to the security situation in Europe, international trade policy, developments in the European automotive industry and financial conditions. Conversely, a more rapid easing of geopolitical tensions or a more pronounced recovery in investment activity in Germany could have a favourable impact.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2026 | 2027 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current forecast | Previous forecast | |||||||||
| Nominal GDP | bill. CZK | 6 308 | 7 050 | 7 660 | 8 069 | 8 573 | 8 957 | 9 527 | 8 969 | 9 531 |
| nominal growth in % | 8,2 | 11,8 | 8,6 | 5,3 | 6,2 | 4,5 | 6,4 | 4,6 | 6,3 | |
| Gross domestic product | real growth in % | 4,0 | 2,8 | 0,0 | 1,3 | 2,6 | 1,7 | 2,5 | 1,9 | 2,4 |
| Consumption of households | real growth in % | 4,2 | 0,5 | -2,6 | 2,4 | 2,7 | 2,8 | 2,7 | 2,7 | 2,6 |
| Consumption of government | real growth in % | 1,5 | 0,4 | 3,2 | 3,1 | 2,2 | 1,6 | 2,3 | 1,7 | 2,3 |
| Gross fixed capital formation | real growth in % | 6,7 | 6,3 | 4,2 | -2,3 | 3,1 | 5,4 | 2,5 | 4,7 | 2,7 |
| Contribution of net exports | pp | -2,8 | -0,3 | 2,6 | 0,9 | -0,6 | -0,3 | -0,3 | -0,3 | -0,4 |
| Contrib. of change in inventories | pp | 2,8 | 1,2 | -3,0 | -0,7 | 0,7 | -1,1 | 0,3 | -0,7 | 0,3 |
| GDP deflator | growth in % | 4,0 | 8,7 | 8,6 | 4,0 | 3,5 | 2,8 | 3,8 | 2,7 | 3,7 |
| Average inflation rate | % | 3,8 | 15,1 | 10,7 | 2,4 | 2,5 | 2,1 | 3,1 | 2,2 | 2,7 |
| Employment (national accounts) | growth in % | 1,0 | 1,0 | 1,6 | 0,6 | 1,3 | 1,4 | 0,3 | 0,8 | 0,1 |
| Unemployment rate (LFS) | average in % | 2,8 | 2,2 | 2,6 | 2,6 | 2,8 | 3,0 | 2,8 | 3,0 | 2,8 |
| Wage bill (domestic concept) | growth in % | 7,2 | 9,1 | 8,8 | 6,1 | 7,3 | 7,4 | 6,6 | 7,8 | 6,2 |
| Current account balance | % of GDP | -2,1 | -4,7 | -0,1 | 1,7 | 0,7 | -0,2 | -0,5 | -0,4 | -0,4 |
| General government balance | % of GDP | -5,0 | -3,0 | -3,7 | -2,0 | -2,2 | -2,8 | -3,5 | -2,7 | . |
| General government debt | % of GDP | 40,7 | 42,5 | 42,2 | 43,2 | 44,2 | 45,8 | 47,4 | 45,8 | . |
| Assumptions: | ||||||||||
| Exchange rate CZK/EUR | 25,6 | 24,6 | 24,0 | 25,1 | 24,7 | 24,3 | 24,2 | 24,3 | 24,1 | |
| Long-term interest rates | % p.a. | 1,9 | 4,3 | 4,4 | 4,0 | 4,3 | 4,9 | 4,9 | 4,7 | 4,7 |
| Crude oil Brent | USD/barrel | 71 | 101 | 82 | 81 | 69 | 100 | 94 | 86 | 73 |
| GDP in the euro area | real growth in % | 6,4 | 3,7 | 0,5 | 1,2 | 1,3 | 1,1 | 1,3 | 0,9 | 1,4 |
Tables and Graphs
Preparation of the Macroeconomic Forecasts
Updated: 25. 07. 2013
Evaluation of Forecasting History at the Ministry of Finance
Information
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The Macroeconomic Forecast is prepared by the Economic Policy Department of the Czech Ministry of Finance. It contains forecast for the years 2026 and 2027, and for certain indicators an outlook for the 2 following years (i.e. until 2029). It is published on a quarterly basis (in January, April, August and November).
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Any comments or suggestions that would help us improve the quality of our publication and closer satisfy the needs of its users are welcome. Please send any comments to the following email address: macroeconomic.forecast(at)mf.gov.cz
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Cut-off Date for Data Sources: The Macroeconomic Forecast is based on data known as of 30 October 2026.